The countdown to the football season continues, and with that means the return of Net Sports News' Fantasy Football advice column. Today, we will be kicking things off with a guide of everything fantasy football related - from busts to breakouts to the best value picks.
Note: All ADP's were derived from fantasypros.com, and are all based on a 1 point PPR league.
Winning your draft
The most important part of the Fantasy Football season is the draft. This is where most of your season long players will come from, and you need to pick your talent well. The first thing you need to know is where you are picking. This will heavily change your draft strategy. Here are a couple of draft strategies to help you win your league. The most important thing to know is to mock draft, mock draft, and mock draft again. This is the best way to get familiar with who is going to be available at your position.
1 RB: This is a strategy recommended to those picking in the top 3 of the league. It involves grabbing one of Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara and then going wide receiver heavy for the next three to four rounds. For example, with the first overall pick you would take Barkley, and then at the 2/3 turn grab something like Keenan Allen and TY Hilton. You could also take either George Kittle or Zach Ertz. Then, in the fourth round, take one more solid pass catcher(like Chris Godwin), and then take your second running back. Ideally, someone like James White, Mark Ingram, or David Montgomery would be available there.
0 RB: This is the strategy that I heavily recommend if you are picking in the bottom half of the league, specifically the bottom three. With your first and second rounder, you take a superstar wide receiver(Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, DaVante Adams, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr.), as running back value takes a significant hit after the top 4. Once again, in the third round, you take another pass catcher(either Kittle, Ertz, or a receiver like Adam Thielen or Amari Cooper). In the fourth, you take your first running back. Here, Kerryon Johnson is the perfect pick, as he has tons of upside as the Lions RB1. After this, you need to go RB heavy the next few rounds, taking one in the 5th, 6th, and maybe even the 7th. This way, you have superstar receivers with a good amount of high RB2's.
Never stick to one strategy in your draft. If you are in the third round, and want to go 0 RB, but Nick Chubb is available, then please take Nick Chubb instead of a wide receiver.
Handcuff, but not too much
Handcuffs are extremely valuable in Fantasy Football. A handcuff is the backup to a superstar that you keep on your bench. They become extremely valuable if a star player gets hurt. This season, there are plenty of valuable handcuffs. Latavius Murray figures to have the Mark Ingram role in the Saints offense, but a Kamara injury gives him RB1 status. Darrell Henderson has immense value as a late round dart throw amid Todd Gurley's injury concerns. Both Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard, the backups to Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot, will have insane value if either one of the running backs holdout. Remember, don't fill your bench with handcuffs, as you won't have any bench if players stay healthy, but two or three handcuffs are always good, just in case.
Wait for your Quarterback
While QB's are the highest scoring position, the gaps between the best and the 10th are very insignificant. There is no reason to waste a second round pick on Patrick Mahomes, when, four rounds later, you could grab Aaron Rodgers. The best place to take your quarterback is after you fill out your running backs and wide receivers(also take a few backups before QB), as they are the heart of your team. In the 8th round, quality talent like Cam Newton and Carson Wentz should be available. The difference between Newton and Mahomes is probably not the point value of someone like JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Watch out on your Tight Ends
This season, there are a clear top 3 tight ends: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle(in that order). All three are essentially WR1's at your tight end spot, and are worth investing one of your first three picks on. The second tier of tight end's include OJ Howard, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram. All those three are worth investing one of your first six picks on. After that, there is huge talent drop off. Rather than reach for someone like Jared Cook in the seventh round, it makes more sense to just stream the position. In later rounds, you can get players like Vance McDonald or Darren Waller. Those two are sleepers that could have excellent seasons, and they will only cost you a 10th or 11th round pick. If you don't go big, then go to the bottom.
Best Value Picks(based on ADP)
Here are a few of the best value picks in this year's draft, based on where they are going right now.
Mark Ingram: Ingram currently has an ADP(average draft position) of 46, meaning the middle of the fifth round. For the main running back in an extremely run-heavy offense, grabbing him in the fifth is a steal. Given Ingram's skills at the goal-line, he has RB1 potential, but is a locked in RB2.
Will Fuller: While injury concerns are a big problem with Fuller, his current ADP of 79 is simply too much of a bargain to pass up on. Fuller has scored 11 touchdowns in the past 17 games that he was healthy, and with DeAndre Hopkins receiving tons of defensive attention, he is a WR3 with huge big play potential.
Julian Edelman: Jules' ADP is currently 39. The reigning Super Bowl MVP is the number one receiving threat in an offense that lost Rob Gronkowski, and is a catch machine. There is no way that he is a low 4th round pick. Jules is easily a weekly WR2, and touchdowns will boost that value up even higher.
Alshon Jeffery: Alshon has been a top 30 wide receiver the past two seasons, and only has room to improve with Carson Wentz fully healthy. He is the number two option in a high flying passing offense, and his ADP of 70 is a steal.
Lamar Jackson: Lamar Jackson is being heavily slept on. He is a perfect fantasy football quarterback, as his rushing ability is arguably better than his passing. At his current ADP of 135, he has tons of value and should at least be on your bench.
Busts and Breakouts
Now, we will look at some players to avoid, and some players that could break out this year.
Bust - Drew Brees
While Brees is undoubtedly one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, he won't be for the upcoming season. He took a big step back last season, and is past his 5,000 yard seasons. With the Saints turning towards a more run heavy offense, Brees will not be a viable quarterback option this year.
Breakout - Baker Mayfield
After setting the record for passing touchdowns in a rookie season, Mayfield is set to do bigger things this season. In a revamped offense with Odell Beckham Jr and Kareem Hunt(at midseason), Baker has a real chance to breakout this season. He should be the 5th or 6th quarterback off the boards, but has QB1 potential.
Bust - Damien Williams
For much of the offseason, Damien Williams was being hyped up as the Chiefs RB1, and was going as high as the second round. Then, an injury set in, and Chiefs coach Andy Reid has been hinting at a running back by committee for the season. This will plummet Williams' value, and his current price as a third to fourth rounder is not worth it.
Breakout - Chris Carson
While Carson isn't as much of a breakout candidate(he had a very solid season last year), he is still a player that will exceed expectations. He is the main running back in the Seahawks run heavy offense, and is also a great goal line player. Carson has top 10 RB potential.
Bust - Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper has been streaky his entire career. He will either produce absolutely nothing, or shred defenses to pieces. This season, I expect a bit more of nothing than shredding from him. While he will always be a boom or bust player, a potential Zeke holdout will cause defenses to focus all of their attention on him.
Breakout - DJ Moore
Moore is one of the most overlooked players of last year's rookie class. He quietly had 788 receiving yards, and I think he can get a lot more this season. With Cam Newton's shoulder fully repaired, and Greg Olsen trending down, Moore has all the pieces set for him to have his first 1,000 yard season.
There you have it. Hopefully, you know enough to draft an excellent team and win your league. Make sure to watch the waiver wire for the whole season, and if you have any team specific management questions, ask us at netsportsnews1@gmail.com.
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