After an entire SIX MONTHS without a single game of football, the NFL returned yesterday for it's 100th season in this year's edition of the Hall of Fame Game, in which the Broncos beat the Falcons 14-10. Thankfully, every week for the next six months, there will be some sort of NFL football on TV. This season is set up to be great, with many new contenders, old juggernauts, and some tankers(looking at you, Giants). Today, we will be previewing the whole season, making some early playoff predictions, identifying some key storylines to follow, and ultimately, naming the champion of the Vince Lombardi trophy.
Storylines to Watch
Here a few storylines that could define the upcoming NFL season.
The Holdouts of Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliot
Both of these running backs are looking for new contract extensions, and are yet to agree on them with their teams. The Chargers are reportedly 2 to 3 million dollars a year away from what Gordon wants, and the Cowboys have not even offered anything to Elliot. If either player were to holdout, it would be terrible for their teams, although the Chargers would likely just trade Gordon. Losing Zeke might kill the Cowboys' chance at the playoffs, as he is the heartbeat of their offense.
Patrick Mahomes' Regression
There hasn’t actually been any signs of Mahomes regressing yet, but it is sure to happen. Any MVP season is hard to replicate, let alone one where he threw for 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns. Mahomes will certainly take a step back this season, but it remains to be seen how big that step is. It is unlikely that he becomes much worse than last season, but it could happen.
Todd Gurley's Knee
Right now, Gurley is a huge question mark. He underwent surgery in an arthritic component of his knee, and nobody knows whether he will return to full form. In the playoffs, we saw Gurley become a shell of himself, and hardly got things done when it mattered. If he cannot return to full health, the Rams will have to rely on rookie running back Darrell Henderson to handle the running back duties.
Team Tier Rankings
The best way to narrow down the 32 NFL teams into more specific groups based on their competitive level. We will be ranking every team based off of five tiers: Contenders, Playoff Teams, The Teams with Potential, The Not Good Enough, and the Tankers. We will start with the bottom of the barrel.
Tankers: New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins.
This group is pretty self-explanatory. The Giants have one good offensive player(Saquon Barkley), either a really old or really young quarterback, absolutely zero receiving, and a non-existent offensive line. They will be among the worst teams this year. Miami also has a young QB, and a new coach. Unless they get hit with some FitzMagic, the Dolphins will probably be the worst team in the AFC. The Redskins also have a young team with a new QB, and are far away from the rest of the conference.
The Not Good Enough: Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions.
Before we begin, remember that there is a difference between "The Not Good Enough" and "The Tankers". This group has some good players, but are not quite at the level of other teams. You can expect them to win anywhere from 5 to 8 games. The Bengals have a brand new coach in Zac Taylor, and some stars on both sides of the ball. However, AJ Green's injury and Andy Dalton's injury history will prevent them from competing. The Bills have a bright future with Josh Allen under center, but lack offensive firepower to put them over the hump. Likewise, the Broncos have a stagnant offense that is not very exciting. Detroit is the opposite, and doesn’t have enough defense to propel them into the playoffs.
The Teams With Potential: New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, San Fransisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
All of these teams can definitely make the playoffs if they play to their full potential, but doing so would require some things to fall into place. The Jets will need the offense to click under Sam Darnold, and Le'Veon Bell needs to return to his pre-holdout form. The Titans have been a fringe playoff team for the past few years, but with better competition, will need to step up a bit. The Jags showed how good they can be two years ago, and with Nick Foles leading the way, Duval could find themselves in the playoffs if the offense works out. Oakland acquired some great talent(Antonio Brown, Trent Brown), but must improve their defensive play and have QB Derek Carr return to top form. Carolina is an extremely average team, and might lack the firepower to make it to the next level. Both the 49ers and Cardinals face tough competition in the NFC West, but with young quarterbacks and big play potential, could be a surprise team. I would expect at least one of these teams to make the playoffs. Under new head coach Bruce Arians, Tampa will engage in shootout after shootout with their high flying offense.
The Playoff Teams: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks.
Obviously, all of these teams cannot make the playoffs, but they all will be in the midst of the competition. The Ravens will be looking to go further than the Wild Card round this year, and have the potential to do it. The Browns might be the biggest wild card the league, and could be in the next tier come next season. Pittsburgh will be looking to avenge the losses of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, and could potentially do so. The Texans still have offensive line problems to address, but have so much top-heavy stardom that it is impossible for them to not be in the playoff race. Both the Packers and Vikings will be in stiff competition, and it is likely that only one of the two make the playoffs. Dallas would be a contender if it weren’t for the uncertainty of the contracts of Zeke, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper. Atlanta and Seattle both have good, but not great teams anchored by their quarterbacks.
The Contenders: New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears.
All of these teams can definitely envision themselves hoisting the Lombardi Trophy next season. The Patriots are the Patriots, and will contend as long as Tom Brady is under center and Bill Belichick is calling plays. The Colts will be hungry for revenge after a disappointing divisional round loss to the Chiefs last season. Both the Chiefs and Chargers have extremely strong teams, and will both be looking for a Super Bowl victory. The Eagles are the biggest question mark of this group, as Carson Wentz has been very injury prone lately, and now, Nick Foles is no longer present to save the Eagles. Nonetheless, they are too talented to leave out. Both New Orleans and the other Los Angeles team are stacked across the board with excellent offense and defense. Finally, Mitch Trubisky and company have an explosive offense and one of the best defenses in the league.
Bold Predictions
Here are a few bold predictions for the upcoming season.
1. The Chargers are the first seed in the AFC, and Phillip Rivers wins MVP. The Chargers have all the talent in the world, and with a stable kicker that can kick straight, they have a chance to be the best team in the league.
2. Saquon Barkley runs for 2,000 yards.
The Giants have two extremely questionable options at QB, and will hand it to Saquon every single play.
3. Derek Carr returns to his 2016 form, and makes the Pro Bowl
The additions of Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Josh Jacobs will help Carr excel in Jon Gruden's offense, and he will make his 3rd Pro Bowl.
4. Freddie Kitchens wins Coach of the Year
...and the Browns make the playoffs. Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, and the strong front 7 sneak into the playoffs.
Playoff Predictions
Here are my playoff predictions for this year.
AFC: NFC:
Los Angeles Chargers 1. New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots 2. Chicago Bears
Indianapolis Colts 3. Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens 4. Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs 5. Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns 6. Minnesota Vikings
Wild Card:
Colts defeat Browns
Chiefs defeat Ravens
Eagles defeat Vikings
Rams defeat Cowboys
Divisional Round:
Patriots defeat Chiefs
Chargers defeat Colts
Bears defeat Rams
Saints defeat Eagles
Conference Championships:
Chargers defeat Patriots
Saints defeat Bears
Super Bowl 54
Chargers defeat Saints, Keenan Allen Super Bowl MVP
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