Tomorrow, the NBA Finals will kick off, with the Raptors playing the Warriors in Toronto. For the first time in 8 years, LeBron James will not be a participant in the finals. Today, we will be breaking down the series with some key questions and matchups, and predicting who will come out on top at the end of it.
Before we begin, let's take a look at how each team got here. The Warriors were(and still are) the heavy favorites to win the title. They started off rough and had some drama within the team. Steph Curry was dealing with an injury and Klay Thompson was ice cold. They righted their ship at midseason and finished the season 57-25, which was good for the first seed in the West. In the playoffs, they beat the Clippers in 6, the Rockets in 6, and the Blazers in 4.
Toronto was also expected to be a playoff team, but was not favored to make it out of the East. They had a very strong regular season, and forward Pascal Siakam took major leaps in his game(he is the favorite for Most Improved Player). Despite Kawhi Leonard sitting out 20 games due to load management, the Raptors finished 58-24 and got the second seed out east. They beat the Magic in 5, the 76ers in 7, and the Bucks in 6 to reach the finals.
#1 - Who on the Raptors guards Steph Curry?
Warriors guard Steph Curry could see a lot of people thrown at him in the finals. The Raptors will likely try to put shooting guard Danny Green on him as much as they can. Unfortunately, Green, who is usually an excellent 3 and D player, has been shooting awfully of late(he shot 17% from deep in the ECF). If his shooting slump continues, the Raptors will have to adapt. Fred VanVleet, he performed admirably in the Conference Finals, is an option, but he might not be capable enough. Kyle Lowry could also take some of the duties, but will tire. Kawhi Leonard might be the safest bet. With KD hurt, Curry is easily Golden State's biggest offensive threat. Kawhi went blow for blow with Giannis Antetokounmpo on both ends last series, and he could do the same with Curry this time around.
#2 - Who on the Warriors guards Kawhi Leonard?
This question is a big one, as Leonard has been the best player in the playoffs so far. KD is expected to be out until at least game 3, so somebody must take defensive responsibility. Draymond Green, one of the league's premier defenders, will likely get a lot of time on Kawhi. However if he is stuck with Leonard, Pascal Siakam will probably have a mismatch. The Warriors could try putting veteran Andre Iguodala on Leonard so that Green can help out in other locations.
#3 - Can the Warriors win without KD?
While Golden State did destroy Portland in the conference finals, Toronto is on another level. Kawhi is an assassin from all around the court, and is arguably the best two-way player on the planet. Durant would have been the perfect player to trade blows with Leonard, but his injury sets the Warriors back. They still have 3 all-star caliber players on their team, and hold an edge talent wise. Defensively however, it will be much harder to hide liabilities like Curry or whomever the center is. Expect the Raptors to relentlessly pick on these mismatches.
#4 - How will the Raptors stop the Curry-Draymond pick and roll?
Perhaps the most lethal play in all of basketball is the Stephen Curry-Draymond Green pick and roll. The play is extremely basic and a staple of Warriors basketball, but is still incredibly hard to stop. The Warriors have started to run this play more and more with the Durant injury, and it is becoming clear why they do so. Curry's unlimited range makes it so that a defender must step up on the screen to avoid giving Curry an open look. Curry either isolates on a big man(after a switch), or dishes it to Draymond in the open floor. In the 4 on 3 scenario, Draymond always makes the right play, either throwing a lob to the center, kicking it to the corner to a shooter, or going up himself. The Raptors must eliminate this at all costs. Their best bet is to double Curry and force other Warriors to make plays. They could also try and play Serge Ibaka at center as he is nimbler and can at least try and stop a Curry isolation.
#5 - How much will home-court advantage matter?
Given that the Raptors finished with one more win than the Warriors in the regular season, they hold home-court advantage for the series. This is a huge win for them, as they get to play in front of one of the greatest fan bases for all the crucial games. The first two games set the tone for the whole series, and two Toronto wins would be huge for them. They also would get to play game 5 and game 7(if it came to that) at home. Home-court will be a big reason why Toronto wins at least one game.
#6 - Who has the edge matchup-wise?
Let's take this position by position. Stephen Curry is easily better than Kyle Lowry at point guard. Klay Thompson overmatches Danny Green/Fred VanVleet. Kawhi has the edge over Andre Iguodala and KD. Draymond is slightly better than Pascal Siakam, and Marc Gasol is better than Jordan Bell, Andrew Bogut, KEvon Looney and injured Demarcus Cousins. Off the bench, the Raptors also have a clear advantage. This leaves us at a 3-3 split, once again setting the stage for an exciting series.
The Pick:This series will definitely be better than the past two years, and every game will be a good one. My guess is that the series will be at 2-2 coming back to Toronto for a game 5. Here, the Warriors will win an overtime thriller to win home court advantage. They will then win their 3rd straight finals in front of the home crowd.
Finals MVP: Steph Curry will win his first finals MVP and average just about 30 points a game in the finals, finally dispelling any doubt that he performs worse in the playoffs.
Bold Prediction: There are going to be two game winners this series, one by the Warriors and one by the Raptors. Also, Drake will give Nick Nurse a massage after every Raptors victory, and could potentially get more TV time than the game itself.
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